HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong export demand and stable management boost HCC's recovery potential. Positive long-term historical returns suggest resilience.




Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory pressures and energy shifts towards renewables could suppress HCC's demand, risking further price declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 45% chance of price stability amid mean-reverting behavior and flat vol surfaces.
  2. 35% chance of decline due to regulatory pressures.
  3. 20% chance of rise on strong demand.




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May 27, 2025


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HCC



DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (0.89)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.88)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.84)


CODI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CODI  Compass Diversified (0.83)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.0)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.0)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.01)


HSIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSIC  Henry Schein (0.03)


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (-0.68)


PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.69)


EUFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUFN  BTC iShares MSCI Europe Financials (-0.69)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.7)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.75)









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