HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong export demand and stable management boost HCC's recovery potential. Positive long-term historical returns suggest resilience.




Bearish Case: Ongoing regulatory pressures and energy shifts towards renewables could suppress HCC's demand, risking further price declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 45% chance of price stability amid mean-reverting behavior and flat vol surfaces.
  2. 35% chance of decline due to regulatory pressures.
  3. 20% chance of rise on strong demand.




Trading Oracle:

Consider the Bearish Short Volatility strategy. The flat volatility surface and imminent regulatory pressures increase downside risk, making short volatility an attractive option.



May 27, 2025


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal











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Assets that tend to move strongly with HCC



CC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CC  Chemours (0.9)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.88)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.85)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.84)


NOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOG  Northern Oil and Gas (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.0)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.0)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.0)


WWW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WWW  Wolverine World Wide (0.01)


RYAAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RYAAY  Ryanair (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.69)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.7)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.7)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.75)


AGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGI  Alamos Gold (-0.79)









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