HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: HCC's stable management and resilient market demand may drive further upward trends, bolstered by potential regulatory ease.




Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and coal market shifts could suppress HCC, leading to potential declines amidst persistent volatility.




Potential Outcomes: 30% rise on export demand surge; 40% stability; 30% fall due to regulatory and market headwinds.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread by selling 45 DTE $55 call and buying $60 call. This hedges against moderate decline with favorable risk-reward. Implied vol is relatively high.



February 25, 2025


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HCC



HAE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAE  Haemonetics (0.68)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.65)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.6)


FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.6)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (-0.0)


BCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCS  Barclays (-0.0)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (0.0)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (0.0)


SLDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLDB  Solid Biosciences (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (-0.43)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.44)


DRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRI  Darden Restaurants (-0.49)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (-0.54)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (-0.61)









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