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HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The bullish case for HCC centers around strong underlying demand for coal, stable pricing, and positive management actions like resolving labor disputes, suggesting a potential price rise through Q1 2025.



Bearish Case: The bearish case highlights regulatory pressures and uncertainty in the coal market due to a shift towards renewables. This could cause HCC's stock to decline further amid market volatility and investor skepticism.



Potential Outcomes:

1.

**Probabilistic Rise

** (40%) due to increased demand for coal.


2.

**Price Stabilization

** (30%) during market adjustment.


3.

**Market Decline

** (30%) from regulatory pressures or investor sentiment shifts.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread by selling $60.00 call options and buying $70.00 calls as market uncertainty stabilizes. Alternatively, buy $59.50 put options expiring soon for protection against volatility. Align trades with upcoming financial disclosures to maximize gains.


December 17, 2024


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal

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AA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AA  Alcoa (0.6)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC


HACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HACK  ETFMG Prime Cyber Security (-0.0)


ASPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASPN  Aspen Aerogels (-0.0)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (-0.0)


MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (0.0)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (-0.59)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.6)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.63)


EVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVH  Evolent Health (-0.64)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.64)







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