HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The recent coal demand surge and favorable export conditions could boost HCC prices. Stable management and lower implied volatility support this scenario with better financials.




Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and energy transitions away from coal may suppress demand, risking further price declines. Implied volatility remains high, indicating investor caution.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of price rise on demand surge.
  • 40% probability of stability due to mean reversion.
  • 30% chance of decline from regulatory pressures.



April 23, 2025


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal











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CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.83)


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (0.81)


  FERG   (0.79)


NOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOG  Northern Oil and Gas (0.79)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.0)


MRVL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRVL  Marvell Technology (0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.0)


BKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKE  Buckle (-0.01)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.65)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (-0.66)


VNET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNET  VNET (-0.66)


ORLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORLY  O'Reilly Automotive (-0.67)


AGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGI  Alamos Gold (-0.74)









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