HCC Forecast


Bullish Case: Warrior Met Coal (HCC) could benefit from recovering steel demand and strong export markets, pushing prices higher. Recent management stability amplifies investor confidence, potentially leading to positive price movements.


Bearish Case: HCC may face headwinds from increasing market volatility and ongoing transition to renewables, which could pressure coal demand and lead to a decline in stock value in the near term.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Price increase due to steel rebound (40%);

2) Price drop from market fluctuations (35%);

3) Price stability amidst ongoing volatility (25%). Opinions based on realized trading volume trends and historical price data.


Trading Oracle: Consider trading a bull call spread using August 2024 80.00 C and 85.00 C. This strategy capitalizes on high implied volatility, aiming for high reward and limited risk. Focus on entry before earnings reports for maximum edge.


July 25, 2024


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC      Warrior Met Coal











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HCC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.83)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.83)





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