HCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The bullish case for HCC centers around strong underlying demand for coal, stable pricing, and positive management actions like resolving labor disputes, suggesting a potential price rise through Q1 2025.




Bearish Case: The bearish case highlights regulatory pressures and uncertainty in the coal market due to a shift towards renewables. This could cause HCC's stock to decline further amid market volatility and investor skepticism.




Potential Outcomes:

1.

**Probabilistic Rise

** (40%) due to increased demand for coal.


2.

**Price Stabilization

** (30%) during market adjustment.


3.

**Market Decline

** (30%) from regulatory pressures or investor sentiment shifts.




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December 17, 2024


Warrior Met Coal Forecast

HCC        Warrior Met Coal











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SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (0.45)


DJP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DJP  ZC SP REDEEM 12/06/2036 USD 50 (0.41)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HCC



PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.0)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (0.01)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.01)


X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HCC



ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.37)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.39)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (-0.4)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (-0.53)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.55)









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