Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: HHS may benefit from upcoming policy shifts under RFK Jr.'s leadership, which could bolster investor sentiment and drive long-term price recovery. A focus on public health could mitigate prior declines, resonating positively with the market.

Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainties and public backlash against RFK Jr.'s controversial views may stymie HHS's growth. Possible legal challenges could further impact price negatively, especially if health policies shift unfavorably.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of 10-15% upside, driven by positive shifts in policy;

2. 30% chance of a drop exceeding 20%, resulting from adverse regulatory impacts;

3. 20% chance of slight gains due to mean reversion;

4. 10% chance of little change amid market volatility.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a debit spread strategy, anticipating volatility around RFK Jr.'s confirmations. This long volatility position capitalizes on potential price recoveries, targeting a 6-9 month horizon. Aim for a 25% gain in bullish scenarios while limiting losses to 10% in bearish outcomes.

November 19, 2024