HI Forecast


Bullish Case: With insider buying and institutional interest, potential M&A deals, improved macro conditions, HI has room for growth. Historical returns support modest positive performance.


Bearish Case: Given the historical mean-reverting price action and economic headwinds, HI faces downside risks. Elevated implied volatility and market uncertainty support a bearish outlook.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic improvement boosts demand (30%).

2. Successful M&A expands business (50%).

3. Recession reduces demand (20%).

4. Volatility spike without price movement (probable). Predictions based on historical data and uncertainty analysis.


Trading Oracle: Deploy Helium Short Volatility strategy by selling $40/$35 put credit spread with 56-day expiration. Leverage high implied volatility, mean reversion. High reward-risk ratio, plus market conditions favor mean-reverting play. Maximize return by capitalizing on elevated volatility.


July 20, 2024


Hillenbrand Forecast

HI      Hillenbrand











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.33)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.07)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.33)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.33)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.07)





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