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IEO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Increasing demand for oil, alongside higher geopolitical tensions, could drive IEO prices upward, potentially exceeding the $100 mark as shown in historical returns targeting long-term gains over years.



Bearish Case: Persistent economic pressures, like inflation and global instability, may push IEO prices below $80, exacerbated by the current inherent market volatility indicated in the option pricing data.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises to $100 (40%);

2. Price remains between $90-$95 (35%);

3. Price drops to $85 (25%). These are driven by volatility dynamics and historical performance trends, indicating likely future price actions.



Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: Buy IEO 12/20/2024 95C and sell IEO 12/20/2024 100C. This trade leverages lower expected volatility at higher strikes, aiming for a positive risk-reward ratio. Target return of 50% with evaluated risks associated with broader economic conditions.


October 27, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Forecast

IEO        BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IEO


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.98)


SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (0.92)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.91)


CVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVE  Cenovus Energy (0.9)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IEO


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (-0.0)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.0)


BEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEAM  Beam Therapeutics (0.0)


BOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOC  Boston Omaha Corp (0.0)


JWN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JWN  Nordstrom (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IEO


OLPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLPX  Olaplex (-0.76)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.79)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.8)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.84)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRIP  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.98)







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