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IPO Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The historical return surface indicates strong likelihood of gains if held for over a year, supported by a decrease in short-term volatility. Current social sentiment remains optimistic.



Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility and recent price fluctuations suggest potential downside. The mean reversion pattern and current bearish speculation increase risks of a decline.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Short-term stabilization (35%)
  • Moderate decline due to volatility (30%)
  • Long-term upward trend (20%)
  • Short-term market-driven spike (15%)


July 16, 2025


Renaissance IPO Forecast

IPO        Renaissance IPO

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IPO


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.95)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VB  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (0.94)


SPXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXL  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (0.93)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.92)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IPO


PSEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSEC  Prospect (-0.0)


REXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REXR  Rexford Industrial Realty (-0.0)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (0.0)


JFIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JFIN  Jiayin (-0.0)


VIPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIPS  Vipshop (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IPO


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (-0.41)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.52)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.53)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.59)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXU  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.75)







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