IPO Forecast


Bullish Case: IPO is up 14.8% over ninety days and Helium's model shows positive long-term historical returns. Despite high short-term volatility, the long-term insight favors holding IPO for substantial gains.


Bearish Case: Short-term high volatility and flat recent price action suggest substantial downside risk. The inconsistency in the Helium volatility surface and ongoing market uncertainty may result in further declines.


Potential Outcomes: Short-term decline (40%), long-term positive return (30%), market stabilization within six months (20%), short-term sharp increase due to market events (10%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a near-term bearish credit spread using 30.00 P and 25.00 P options expiring 08/16/2024. Short-term decline probability (40%) and high implied volatility favor shorting Helium-model overvalued puts. Profitable high reward-to-risk ratio and high probability of profit.


July 17, 2024


Renaissance IPO Forecast

IPO      Renaissance IPO











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IPO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IPO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IPO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.86)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.43)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.59)





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