ISRA Forecast


Bullish Case: ISRA could rise from geopolitical strategy shifts favoring Israel, improved market outlook, and $80 million South Korea partnership driving innovation.


Bearish Case: Increased conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, unstable political landscape, and negative international sentiment could severely harm ISRA's price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Peace negotiations succeed, boosting investor confidence (+60%).

2. Further conflict escalation impacts global markets and ISRA (-30%).

3. Stable but uncertain macro backdrop keeps ISRA volatile (-10%).


Trading Oracle: Sell credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) due to ISRA’s mean-reversion and lower volatility forecast. Timeframe: 1-3 months. Utilize $34 strikes due to stable historical pricing trends and geopolitical risks appearing over 70 days ahead.


June 27, 2024


VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Israel Forecast

ISRA      VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Israel











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ISRA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ISRA



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ISRA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.36)





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