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IVR Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: If IVR stabilizes and increases dividends while attracting institutional buying, we could see price appreciation—signaled by low P/B ratios and current high yield.



Bearish Case: Continued dividend cuts and increased market volatility could prolong the downward trend for IVR, especially given its significant price decline from historical levels.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization and potential increase in dividends (35%).

2. Further dividend cuts leading to price decline (40%).

3. Persisting market volatility causing IVR to remain range-bound (25%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate a call debit spread: buy IVR 11/15/2024 9.00 C and sell IVR 11/15/2024 10.00 C. This positions for a bullish rebound based on stabilized dividends and potential upside, leveraging current high implied volatility. Expect significant profit margins if the stock rises, while limiting downside risk. High reward-to-risk potential.


November 15, 2024


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Assets that tend to move strongly with IVR


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VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.62)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (0.62)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (0.62)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVR


RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (0.0)


BBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBY  Best Buy (-0.0)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.0)


FUTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUTU  Futu (-0.0)


MOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MOD  Modine Manufacturing (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVR


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.38)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.41)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (-0.43)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.46)


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (-0.53)







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