Bullish Case: Recent institutional buying and high dividend could attract investors, potentially undervalued with a P/B of 0.8.


Bearish Case: Consistent long-term price decline and potential further dividend cuts indicate continued downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: 20% chance of short-term bounce from mean-reversion. 30% chance of continued decline due to fundamentals. 50% chance of sideways movement with high yield balancing risks.


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April 11, 2024


Invesco Mortgage Forecast

IVR        Invesco Mortgage
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVR



UAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UAL]  United Airlines (0.91)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MLI]  Mueller Industries (0.9)


LSCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [LSCC]  Lattice Semiconductor (0.88)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BYND]  Beyond Meat (0.87)


MAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MAA]  Mid-America Apartment Communities (0.86)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to IVR



FIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FIS]  Fidelity National Information Services (0.0)


ALCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ALCC]  AltC Acquisition Corp - (-0.0)


ITW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ITW]  Illinois Tool Works (-0.0)


PSFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PSFE]  Paysafe Limited (-0.0)


CFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CFG]  Citizens Financial (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVR



CME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CME]  CME (-0.7)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [LRN]  Stride (-0.7)


IONS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [IONS]  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (-0.71)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FRO]  Frontline (-0.71)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UVIX]  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.82)





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