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IVR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: If dividend stabilization occurs alongside institutional buying, IVR could see upside, driven by a favorable P/B ratio (0.8) and attractive yield (19.17%), potentially leading to price recovery.



Bearish Case: Continued dividend cuts or unfavorable market conditions could further depress IVR's price, particularly given its long history of declines and current bearish analyst outlooks.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stabilization & institutional buying (40% chance)
  2. Further dividend cuts (35% chance)
  3. High volatility leading to range-bound movement (25% chance)



Trading Oracle: Consider a long put debit spread targeting near-term expirations. Buy IVR 01/17/2025 8.00 P and sell IVR 01/17/2025 9.00 P, leveraging high implied volatility to capitalize on anticipated price declines. This strategy executes with limited downside and utilizes the inherent volatility in current market pricing to create a favorable risk/reward profile.


December 17, 2024


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IVR        Invesco Mortgage

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