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IVR Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: IVR's high dividend yield and low price-to-book ratio suggest potential undervaluation. Institutional interest indicates confidence. Potential stabilization in interest rates may support a bullish outlook.



Bearish Case: Persistent historical declines, high implied volatility, and risk of further dividend cuts signal ongoing challenges. Market skepticism and economic uncertainties, like interest rate hikes, threaten downside pressures.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable dividends (40%): Price appreciation due to market confidence.
  • Further cuts (35%): Potential decline due to investor concerns.
  • Volatility persists (25%): Range-bound due to external economic factors.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread: buy IVR 04/17/2025 9.00 C and sell IVR 04/17/2025 10.00 C. This targets incremental price recovery leveraging high implied volatility. Medium-term focus, maximizing potential rebound while managing risk.


January 30, 2025


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IVR        Invesco Mortgage

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVR


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (0.01)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (0.02)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.02)


VOYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOYA  Voya Financial (0.02)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVR


TPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPG  TPG (-0.71)


CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (-0.72)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (-0.74)


ADP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADP  Automatic Data Processing (-0.77)


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