JD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: JD's strong logistics network and partnerships, recent buyback plans, and potential easing of Chinese economic policies create a favorable growth outlook.


Bearish Case: Continued pressures from economic slowdown in China, high competition in e-commerce, regulatory pressures, and geopolitical tensions may significantly impact JD's stock.


Potential Outcomes: [vigilantnews.com] JD sees recovery with China's economic aid (60%) [BMJ] Competition squeezes margins, impacts growth (40%) [BMJ] Geopolitical tensions disrupt operations (35%), [News Facts Network] Regulatory actions weigh down (25%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish short volatility spreads expiring ~14 days. Sell $28.0 put, buy $26.5 put. Aim for 77% profit odds. Positive edge strategy with balanced downside, leveraging elevated implied volatility and term structure insights.


July 14, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.21)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.03)





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