Bullish Case: Jefferies Financial's low price-to-book ratio, consistent historical growth, and AI forecast of +0.62% suggest undervaluation and potential upside.


Bearish Case: Recent price drop, low trading volume, and the Helium AI's higher implied volatility forecast hint at growing market unease and potential downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive earnings or strategic news could lift the stock (30% chance).

2) Continuation of mean-reverting pattern, smaller moves (50% chance).

3) Further decline on bad news or market shift (20% chance).


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April 16, 2024


Jefferies Financial Forecast

JEF        Jefferies Financial
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with JEF



SLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SLG]  SL Green Realty (0.97)


PRU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PRU]  Prudential Financial (0.97)


SF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SF]  Stifel Financial (0.95)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CAT]  Caterpillar (0.95)


MA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MA]  Mastercard Incorporated (0.95)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to JEF



FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FL]  Foot Locker (0.0)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BND]  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.0)


LTRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [LTRX]  Lantronix (0.01)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PTEN]  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.01)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MCD]  McDonald's (0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against JEF



SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SDOW]  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.9)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UVXY]  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.91)


VIXM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VIXM]  ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures (-0.92)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VXX]  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXS]  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)





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