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JEF Forecast

Bullish Case: JEF's low price-to-book ratio and strong call volume indicate undervaluation. With a mean-reverting trend and positive historical return likelihood, the stock has growth potential.

Bearish Case: High volatility in out-of-the-money puts and flat implied volatility suggest market skepticism. Coupled with negative AI forecast, economic pressures could hinder growth.

Potential Outcomes: Price appreciation due to undervaluation and mean reversion (55% chance).
Economic uncertainties and negative sentiment lead to price drop (45% chance).

May 17, 2025

Jefferies Financial Forecast

JEF Jefferies Financial

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JEF

KKR KKR (0.95)

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.94)

EXTR Extreme Networks (0.94)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.92)

MAC Macerich (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JEF

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.0)

OUST Ouster (0.01)

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (0.01)

MFA MFA Financial (-0.02)

SLNO Soleno Therapeutics (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JEF

XP XP (-0.54)

GROY Gold Royalty (-0.62)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.73)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.75)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.85)

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