JEF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Jefferies Financial shows consistent growth, evident from its impressive historical returns and strong investment banking performance. The term structure suggests accumulating upward momentum, further benefited by strategic divestments and improved results [Yahoo][Helium][Yahoo].


Bearish Case: Market implied volatility exceeds Helium's model, suggesting potential overestimation of JEF's bullish outlook. Recent fraud allegations and insider activity could overshadow positive developments, elevating downside risks [Hedge Week][Hedge Week].


Potential Outcomes:

1) Market realizes JEF's potential (55%).

2) Market shies away due to recent controversies (45%). Based on consistent historical growth and investment sentiment versus legal and internal challenges [Helium][Hedge Week][Hedge Week].


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July 20, 2024


Jefferies Financial Forecast

JEF      Jefferies Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JEF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JEF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JEF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


JEF News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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