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JOE Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: JOE's strategic land holdings in Florida and expanding real estate footprint underscore potential growth. Historical return likelihoods show long-term gains.

Bearish Case: Over-reliance on real estate amid economic variability and skepticism on sustainability could hinder growth. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential risk.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of moderate growth due to strategic initiatives. 30% potential downturn from economic factors. 20% likelihood of flat performance amid market uncertainty.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish credit put spread expiring in 45 days. Target $45 and $50 strikes, leveraging moderate implied volatility and mean-reverting price action to capture premium with a high probability of profit.

February 11, 2025

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