KREF Forecast


Bullish Case: KREF's mean-reverting behavior, insider buying, stable price-to-book ratio, and favorable lending environment present potential for recovery. Increased commercial real estate transaction volumes and liquidity may support a moderate uptrend.


Bearish Case: KREF faces persistent challenges, including a GAAP net loss, significant price declines, and high implied volatility. Negative earnings sentiment and potential market downturns could drive further declines.


Potential Outcomes: 55% chance of stabilization with mild recovery as market absorbs earnings; 30% chance of further decline due to unfavorable market conditions; 15% significant upturn on robust real estate market recovery.


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June 27, 2024


KKR Real Estate Finance Forecast

KREF      KKR Real Estate Finance











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KREF



BXMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXMT  Blackstone Mortgage (0.86)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.86)


CHGG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHGG  Chegg (0.86)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.85)


APPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPS  Digital Turbine (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KREF



LNTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNTH  Lantheus (-0.0)


TDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDS  Telephone And Data Systems (0.0)


NVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVAX  Novavax (0.0)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.0)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KREF



BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.77)


ORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORN  Orion (-0.78)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.8)


HQY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HQY  Healthequity (-0.8)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.86)





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