Bullish Case: Strong demand for electric vehicles, driven by increasing global focus on sustainability. Additionally, any easing of geopolitical tensions may support Lear's recovery, enhancing market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Persistent geopolitical uncertainties may cripple demand in the automotive sector, causing further declines in sales and stock value for LEA, especially as volatility spikes.

Potential Outcomes:

• Improved EV demand (30%): Increased consumer interest leads to higher sales for LEA.
• Geopolitical tensions persist (40%): Resulting uncertainties continue to suppress LEA's performance.
• Market stabilization (30%): Positive sentiment restores investor confidence, boosting LEA's prices.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy using debit spreads: buy LEA 100C and sell LEA 105C with expiration in 30 days targeting upward movements. This targets high probability due to current low implied volatility and potential market rebounds, offering a reward:risk ratio of 2:1 with about 75% probability of profit.

November 28, 2024