LITE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: LITE's mean-reversion tendency, increased call volumes, and backwardation suggest potential for a rebound, supported by cloud and data center growth prospects. The market's proactive stance on LITE's emergent technologies in photonics enhances bullish sentiment.




Bearish Case: Persistent legal challenges and high implied volatility point to potential downside risks. Market skepticism is highlighted by lower put volumes, indicating a cautious approach amid competitive pressures.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Technical rebound driven by mean reversion: 40%
  • Continued bearish trend due to legal risks: 35%
  • Stagnation with minor volatility fluctuations: 25%



March 19, 2025


Lumentum Forecast

LITE        Lumentum











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LITE



VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.96)


IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (0.96)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.96)


QQQJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQJ  Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 (0.95)


ADSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADSK  Autodesk (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LITE



INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.02)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.02)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (0.03)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LITE



XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.83)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.84)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.85)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.85)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.87)









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