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LMND Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: High call volume indicates potential investor confidence. Recent price growth suggests continued bullish momentum.

Bearish Case: Neglecting regulatory challenges, prevalent market uncertainty, and high implied volatility might pressure prices further down.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of gradual price increase; 50% chance of decline due to volatility; 15% stability given flat term structure.

Trading Oracle: Optimal: Bullish short volatility strategy. Sell $36.5 puts, buy $33.5 puts, expiring in ~3 days. Market favors this setup with a 74% chance of profit. High reward-to-risk with expected return of 15% (165% annualized).

February 19, 2025

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