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LMND Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: With a short interest over 30% and strong institutional support, LMND could experience a short squeeze post-earnings, particularly with bullish sentiment around AI integration fueling demand.



Bearish Case: Sustained financial losses and high competitor risks could exacerbate negative sentiment, particularly ahead of upcoming earnings reports, potentially driving the price lower amid market uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings boost share price by 20% (40% probability).

2. Continuation of downward trend decreases share price by 15% (35% probability).

3. Neutral performance holds price (25% probability).



Trading Oracle: Given current high implied volatility, consider a bullish long call spread strategy by buying 1 $30 call and selling 1 $35 call, targeting potential upside post-earnings with high probability of profit and a favorable risk-reward setup.


November 15, 2024


Lemonade Forecast

LMND        Lemonade

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LMND


NWN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NWN  Northwest Natural (0.65)


DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.64)


USB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USB  U.S. Bancorp. (0.57)


EVGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVGO  EVgo (0.55)


URTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URTY  ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 (0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LMND


RHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RHI  Robert Half International (0.0)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.0)


MYGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MYGN  Myriad Genetics (-0.0)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LMND


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (-0.41)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.43)


ELAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ELAN  Elanco Animal Health (-0.43)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (-0.44)


ARCT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARCT  Arcturus Therapeutics (-0.47)







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