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LMT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: LMT's strong defense contracts and geopolitical tensions drive potential growth. The historical return surface supports positive price momentum.

Bearish Case: Persistent supply chain issues and high put option volumes suggest potential downside risks. Bearish risk exceeds bullish risk across tenors.

Potential Outcomes: Increased defense contracts due to global tensions (70% chance).
Persistent supply chain issues could hinder growth (30% chance).
Geopolitical unpredictability impacting operations (10% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a 3-month bullish debit call spread on LMT targeting June expiry. Capture potential upside driven by defense contracts and mitigate risk from supply chain issues with this spread strategy.

February 18, 2025

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LMT

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CRK Comstock Resources (0.01)

ABEV Ambev (-0.01)

UBER Uber (-0.01)

QSR Restaurant Brands International (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LMT

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