LMT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong defense contracts and international expansion drive growth despite geopolitical risks.




Bearish Case: Supply chain issues and F-35 program costs could limit profitability and growth.




Potential Outcomes: Defense contract wins boost LMT by 10% (70%), supply chain issues persist (30%).




Trading Oracle: Sell OTM credit put spreads expiring March 2025. Capitalize on current backwardation and low implied volatilities. Strike below $480 for premium decay advantage.



December 27, 2024


Lockheed Martin Forecast

LMT        Lockheed Martin











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LMT



ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (0.95)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.95)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.94)


CDNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDNA  Caredx (0.9)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LMT



NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.01)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.01)


CRESY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRESY  Cresud (-0.03)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LMT



AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.88)


CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (-0.89)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.89)


ABCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABCL  AbCellera Biologics (-0.9)


IRTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRTC  iRhythm (-0.92)









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