LOAN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased interest rate cuts and regulatory support may drive demand, leading to potential price recovery beyond +15% as seen in favorable scenarios historically.




Bearish Case: Persistently high loan defaults and economic uncertainty could push LOAN prices lower, reflecting historical negative trends, especially over short holding periods.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Interest rate cuts boost demand: 40%.
  2. Increased loan defaults impact returns: 30%.
  3. Regulatory support fostering confidence: 20%.
  4. Flat trading due to market indecision: 10%.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying LOAN $7.50 calls expiring in April 2025. High implied volatility aligns with potential upside. This strategy plays on possible economic improvements and regulatory changes, targeting a high probability of profit with manageable risk/reward.



January 12, 2025


Manhattan Bridge Forecast

LOAN        Manhattan Bridge











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GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.89)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (0.87)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.84)


RGLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGLD  Royal Gold (0.84)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LOAN



URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.0)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.03)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.05)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LOAN



LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.78)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.78)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.78)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.85)









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