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LPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: LPL's next-gen OLED tech and strong customer base could drive significant revenue, overcoming regulatory hurdles.

Bearish Case: Persisting regulatory challenges and mean-reverting trends in LPL's price history suggest potential downside.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of OLED-driven revenue boost, 30% risk from regulatory impacts, 20% continuation of mean reversion.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling LPL 5.00C and buying 7.50C (e.g., April expiry) to capitalize on high volatility. Expect short-term downside with high probability of profit. Monitor OLED adoption news closely.

February 18, 2025

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LPL

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FLNC Fluence Energy (-0.02)

VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals (0.02)

CRNC Cerence (0.03)

CPS Cooper-Standard (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LPL

MTZ Mastec (-0.75)

ARGT Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (-0.75)

CRK Comstock Resources (-0.76)

PPTA Perpetua Resources (-0.76)

YPF YPF (-0.77)

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