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LYV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With strong historical returns and high call option volumes, LYV is poised for potentially significant growth, benefiting from increased demand for live events.



Bearish Case: Legal challenges, monopoly scrutiny, and high implied volatility might drive near-term downside. The negative price-to-book ratio suggests inherent value concerns, risking further declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Growth (60%): Booming event demand and investor optimism.

2. Decline (30%): Legal and fiscal risks looming large.

3. Stability (10%): Mean-reverting tendencies stabilize prices.



Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish credit spread by selling Feb 21 $145 puts and buying Feb 21 $130 puts, capitalizing on current volatility. Offers a favorable risk-reward with positive edge and 71% odds of profit. This strategy aligns with mean-reverting behavior and bullish option volumes.


February 11, 2025


Live Nation Entertainment Forecast

LYV        Live Nation Entertainment

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Assets that tend to move strongly with LYV


IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.9)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (0.87)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.86)


UDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDOW  ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.86)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LYV


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.0)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.01)


MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (0.01)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.01)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LYV


HRTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRTX  Heron Therapeutics (-0.7)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.71)


AMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMN  AMN Healthcare Services (-0.74)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.77)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)







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