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LYV Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: With strong demand for live events and the upcoming holiday season, LYV's price could surge, benefiting from bullish investor sentiment and higher implied volatility as live shows ramp up. Recent price increases bolster this outlook.



Bearish Case: Ongoing antitrust scrutiny and a negative price-to-book ratio pose significant risks, potentially leading to sharp declines in LYV's stock price. Implied volatility spikes from these uncertainties signal heightened downside risk.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% probability of growth driven by upcoming event demand.

2. 30% chance of price falling due to legal issues.

3. 15% possibility of stagnation amid market volatility and investor caution, reflecting ongoing risks.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy via a short put spread—sell 1 $120 put (delta: -0.35) and buy 1 $115 put (delta: -0.24) expiring in 4 days. High probability of profit (~67%), low capital required, and aligns with LYV's stabilizing price action.


November 12, 2024


Live Nation Entertainment Forecast

LYV        Live Nation Entertainment

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