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MCHI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: MCHI could rise, driven by potential recovery in China's economy and favorable sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Historical mean reversion suggests upward movements, especially with positive call volume trends observed recently.



Bearish Case: Concerns about regulatory issues in China and geopolitical tensions could suppress MCHI's price. High implied volatility indicates potential for sharp declines, especially if macroeconomic factors worsen.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Recovery in China leads to 40% price rise (35%)
  • Market stagnation results in 0.1% movement (25%)
  • Regulatory backlash causes a 20% price drop (20%)
  • Mean reversion drives to previous highs (20%)



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying MCHI 45.00 C (IV 25.4%) and selling MCHI 46.00 C (IV 24.2%), targeting significant price recovery while controlling risks. This setup capitalizes on expected mean reversion and positive sentiment without high exposure to market swings.


December 21, 2024


BTC iShares MSCI China Forecast

MCHI        BTC iShares MSCI China

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Assets that tend to move strongly with MCHI


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CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (0.9)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (0.89)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCHI


UROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UROY  Uranium Royalty (-0.01)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.01)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.01)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.01)


CRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNT  Ceragon Networks (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCHI


EDIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDIT  Editas Medicine (-0.77)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.78)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.79)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.83)


MCHI News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.







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