Bullish Case: MDLZ's strong market position and ongoing innovation coupled with a high call volume signal potential price recovery, especially after corrective moves. Analyst predictions and historical performance suggest upward price movements driven by consumer demand. This is amplified by a significant jump in implied volatility indicating expected price activity.

Bearish Case: Recent product withdrawals and high implied volatility reflect market concerns that could lead to further price erosion. Additionally, the high market correlation indicates potential for downside risks should broader market corrections occur, prompting cautious investor sentiment around MDLZ.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Price recovery due to strong Q4 earnings and product launches (40%)
• 2. Continued volatility leading to drawdown amid market corrections (30%)
• 3. Neutral performance as market stabilizes post-withdrawal concerns (20%)
• 4. Major sell-off driven by investor pessimism (10%)

Trading Oracle: Leverage a bearish credit put spread selling $60 puts and buying $58 puts, targeting a 75% probability of profit by expiry in 30 days. This approach aligns with current high volatility conditions while capturing premium amid elevated market risk. Consider holding for short-term market events driving price adjustments.

December 15, 2024