MDLZ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: MDLZ's strong baseline sales and potential for recovering consumer confidence in H2 2024 support a bullish case. Historical returns show reliability, and call volumes are significantly higher than puts.


Bearish Case: Market pressures on low-income consumers, heightened promotional needs, and geopolitical risks indicate potential downside risk. Implied volatility suggests caution amidst market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery in consumer confidence in H2 2024 leads to moderate gains (40%).

2. Persistent consumer pressure dampens performance (35%).

3. Stability due to mean-reversion and market influences (25%).


Trading Oracle: Leaning bullish: Sell near-term (~30 days) credit put spread—sell $67.5 put, buy $65.0 put. This aligns with historical mean reversion and MDLZ’s consistent performance. High reward:risk ratio and 75% estimated edge.


July 11, 2024


Mondelez International Forecast

MDLZ      Mondelez International











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