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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: MEC's positive growth trajectory, driven by robust project launches and operational efficiency, suggests potential for substantial price appreciation. Historical returns over extended holding periods indicate strong past performance, supporting optimism.

Bearish Case: Macroeconomic uncertainties and signs of demand softening could hinder MEC's growth prospects. Elevated implied volatility, particularly for near-term puts, suggests market caution, indicating potential for significant price corrections.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued Growth (50%): Strong project execution leads to upward momentum.

2. Market Stabilization (30%): Prices stabilize around current levels.

3. Economic Headwinds (20%): Adverse economic conditions prompt price decline below $17.

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish call spread by buying MEC 20.00 C and selling MEC 22.50 C. Given high implied volatility, this strategy captures upside potential while limiting risk. Aiming for expiration in 30-60 days enhances profitability.

September 16, 2024