Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Mesoblast's recent FDA approval for remestemcel-L has instilled strong investor confidence, leading to a potential rally as the market captures optimism for profitable future treatments.

Bearish Case: Uncertainties surrounding previous regulatory delays and market volatility may continue to challenge Mesoblast’s growth, potentially leading to investor pessimism if upcoming trial results disappoint.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 75%: Continued positive momentum post-FDA approval, leading to a significant price surge.
2. 15%: Regulatory setbacks re-emerging due to unforeseen hurdles, prompting a drop in stock value.
3. 10%: Persistent market volatility causes investor panic, resulting in sharp sell-offs.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread strategy by buying MESO 01/17/2025 $15 calls and selling $16 calls. Given the high implied volatility, this setup leverages potential price appreciation from FDA approval news while minimizing risk exposure. Look for close management around key updates for the best performance.

December 21, 2024