MFA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MFA's high dividend yield and mean-reverting trends suggest potential recovery. Increased institutional interest is likely to boost confidence.




Bearish Case: Sustained economic pressures and high implied volatility indicate continued downside risk, with limited recovery potential amidst lingering macro concerns.




Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Dividend appeal attracts investors, stabilizing price.

2. (30%) Economic challenges lead to further declines.

3. (30%) High volatility sparks unpredictable price movement.




Trading Oracle: The bearish long volatility strategy is optimal given current high IV and economic uncertainties. It exploits potential downside while benefiting from volatility expansion. Bearish Long Volatility Strategy



April 16, 2025


MFA Financial Forecast

MFA        MFA Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MFA



IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (0.85)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.81)


BAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAH  Booz Allen Hamilton (0.8)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.79)


LAND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAND  Gladstone Land (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MFA



OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.0)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (-0.0)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.01)


UWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWM  ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.01)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MFA



RELY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RELY  Remitly (-0.7)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.7)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.73)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.76)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.77)









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