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MMD Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Given MMD's historical mean-reverting behavior, potential for stable municipal yields could lead to gradual price increases. With decreasing interest rates likely, MMD's returns may improve in the short to medium term.



Bearish Case: Persistently high interest rates could continue to pressure MMD's performance, exacerbated by economic uncertainties. If widespread economic downturns occur, MMD may face substantial declines, undermining investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion recovery: 50% chance – Historical patterns indicate a strong likelihood for recovery.

2. Sustained high-interest rates: 30% – Ongoing rate hikes could pressure MMD.

3. Economic stability boosting returns: 20% - Favorable conditions lead to price upturn.



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November 19, 2024


MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Forecast

MMD        MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities

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AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (0.8)


SPGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPGI  S&P Global (0.8)


JNPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNPR  Juniper Networks (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MMD


THO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   THO  Thor Industries (-0.0)


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (-0.0)


QRVO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QRVO  Qorvo (0.0)


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (0.01)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MMD


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.7)


CAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAR  Avis Budget (-0.71)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.71)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (-0.71)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.75)







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