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MNRO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Increasing demand for auto repairs, enhanced by rising used car sales and strategic expansions, indicates a potential recovery for MNRO. Historical mean reversion may support upward movement.

Bearish Case: Persistently high operational costs, increasing competition, and economic uncertainties pose significant risks. Recent historical returns and social media concerns highlight potential for further declines.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of gradual recovery driven by demand for repairs.
25% chance of stagnation amid economic pressures.
15% risk of sharp declines due to increased competition.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread on MNRO options, specifically focusing on the 25.00 C at an implied volatility of 42.5. Target a 30-60 day horizon to exploit mean reversion potential, while mitigating downside risk. Leverage elevated implied volatility for high reward.

January 30, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MNRO

WY Weyerhaeuser (0.85)

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line (0.82)

BMEA Biomea Fusion (0.8)

MNST Monster Beverage (0.78)

BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MNRO

ARKK ARK Innovation (-0.0)

RDFN Redfin (0.0)

MIDU Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares (-0.0)

MHK Mohawk Industries (0.0)

ESTC Elastic (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MNRO

TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care (-0.6)

BLBD Blue Bird (-0.64)

GME Gamestop (-0.64)

ENVX Enovix (-0.64)

HIMX Himax (-0.68)

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