MRNA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: MRNA is positioned for growth with a diversified vaccine pipeline and a favorable legal outcome supporting its IP, driving investor confidence.


Bearish Case: Safety concerns, legal challenges, and waning vaccine demand could weigh on MRNA's financial performance and stock price.


Potential Outcomes: Key outcomes: 40% successful new vaccine approvals, 30% safety/efficacy concerns, 30% financial/legal setbacks affecting stock price.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread. Buy near-term ITM $110 calls, sell $130 calls to capitalize on high volatility and potential upside from promising trial results and corporate developments. A 1-2 month time frame is ideal for this strategy.


July 16, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MRNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRNA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRNA



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)





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