MSB Forecast


Bullish Case: Positive momentum from resumed production, favorable commodity trends, and China’s economic rebound suggest potential recovery. High historical price return variability indicates potential for upside.


Bearish Case: Prolonged mean reversion trend, higher implied market volatility, and subdued iron ore prices imply continued downward pressure. Flooding and tourism impacts could exacerbate negative sentiment.


Potential Outcomes: Market's high put volume and mean reversion signal 65% bearish continuation. 35% chance of bullish reversal given commodity recovery and resumed operations. Potential impacts: inflation, regulatory changes, and global demand shifts.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish debit spread with $17.50 strike expiring in 3 months. High implied volatility and historical trend support short-term bearish position. This balances risk, capitalizes on volatility, and has a high probability of profit.


July 20, 2024


Mesabi Forecast

MSB      Mesabi











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