Bullish Case: Helium shows strong recovery potential, supported by historical upward momentum visible in return surfaces, suggesting long-term gains are likely as market confidence returns.

Bearish Case: Current geopolitical tensions and mean reversion trends could trigger further declines in Helium's price, supported by recent pressures evidenced in historical price returns and market volatility data.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Continued mean reversion leading to a decline (-30%).
• 2. Positive tech adoption events leading to a moderate recovery (+25%).
• 3. Geopolitical tensions driving sharp declines (-40%).
• 4. Regulatory changes yielding unexpected bullish sentiment (+15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying the $3.50 calls and selling $4.00 calls, targeting a 90-day horizon. This exploits potential upside from an upward momentum trend seen in returns, with positive risk/reward due to limited downside exposure.

December 18, 2024