NAIL Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: NAIL's robust historical returns and current flat implied volatility suggest potential for mean reversion and gains as housing market indicators improve.




Bearish Case: High put option volume and flat implied volatility surface point to increased bearish sentiment, signaling downside risk if economic conditions worsen.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Sideways trend (50%): High volatility but flat structure supports continuation.
  • Bullish breakout (30%): Positive housing indicators.
  • Bearish decline (20%): Further economic downturn.




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread by buying NAIL $81 call and selling $90 call, expiring in 60 days. Capitalize on flat implied volatility and potential bullish catalysts. This strategy offers high reward with controlled risk and a 60% probability of profit.



January 08, 2025


Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares Forecast

NAIL        Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NAIL



LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.92)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.92)


XLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLB  Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR (0.81)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.81)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NAIL



SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (-0.0)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (0.01)


DB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DB  Deutsche (-0.01)


RIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIO  Rio Tinto (0.01)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NAIL



ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.53)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.54)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.64)


TSLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSLX  Sixth Street Specialty Lending (-0.65)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.66)









Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with NAIL


 Ask any question about NAIL!