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NAIL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Historical resilience and backwardated term structure suggest potential swift surges amid market stabilization, offering upside as economic indicators improve.

Bearish Case: High short-term volatility and significant recent price decline signal potential downside risks amid economic uncertainty and elevated interest rates, which could dampen growth.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Sideways (40%): Market mean reversion trends.

2. Bullish (30%): Recovering housing data boosts value.

3. Bearish (30%): Continued pressure from economic uncertainties and high interest rates.

April 10, 2025

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Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NAIL

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.94)

OMC Omnicom Group (0.92)

PHM PulteGroup (0.91)

BZH Beazer Homes USA (0.9)

TOL Toll Brothers (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NAIL

MTB M & T (0.0)

EWBC East West Bancorp (0.0)

ADSK Autodesk (0.0)

APLE Apple Hospitality REIT (0.01)

SBUX Starbucks (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NAIL

ASAN Asana (-0.55)

BB BlackBerry (-0.6)

BCSF Bain Capital Specialty Finance (-0.61)

HIMX Himax (-0.63)

DAN Dana (-0.67)

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