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NFG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NFG shows robust upward momentum with a 48.1% increase in price year-on-year. Strong institutional interest and call volume suggest continued bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Environmental concerns and high implied volatility on puts indicate market skepticism, potentially leading to downward pressure.

Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion continues (60%)
Institutional interventions lead to growth (20%)
Market volatility induces decline (15%)
External events impact sector (5%)

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January 31, 2025

National Fuel Gas Forecast

NFG National Fuel Gas

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NFG

CRS Carpenter Technology (0.96)

TPB Turning Point Brands (0.95)

ORI Old Republic International (0.95)

ERJ Embraer (0.95)

KGC Kinross Gold (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NFG

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (0.06)

BZH Beazer Homes USA (-0.06)

ARKG ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (-0.06)

ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line (-0.06)

ESTC Elastic (-0.07)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NFG

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.88)

CNI Canadian National Railway (-0.88)

LEA Lear (-0.88)

ATKR Atkore (-0.89)

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