NFG Forecast


Bullish Case: NFG's solid fundamentals and recent dividend increase signal potential growth, while Helium's implied volatility trends suggest favorable market conditions for upward price movement, providing a promising outlook for investors.


Bearish Case: Despite NFG's dividend history, declining revenue and high market uncertainty could pressure prices, exacerbated by elevated put trading volume indicating bearish sentiment which could lead to further downward pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Stable price increase (30%);

2) Significant volatility culls price (25%);

3) Institutional buying surge (20%);

4) Shocks from energy policy updates (15%);

5) Sustained flat price range (10%).


Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit spread strategy on NFG, aiming for the August 2024 60.00 call options. With implied volatility expected to stabilize, this management of risk offers high reward potential and aligns with a short-term bullish outlook.


July 25, 2024


National Fuel Gas Forecast

NFG      National Fuel Gas











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NFG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.73)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NFG



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.45)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.73)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NFG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.73)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)





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