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NOG Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: NOG's recent acquisitions boosting oil production and strong call volume (67% increase) signal market optimism, suggesting potential upside. The stable implied volatility range indicates less skepticism from traders and reinforcing a bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Despite positive signs, the flat price action and low trading volume (at 98th percentile) introduce uncertainty, increasing the risk of stagnation. If market conditions turn bearish due to geopolitical tensions, price declines could follow.

Potential Outcomes: 1. 55% chance NOG stabilizes or increases due to production growth.

2. 25% likelihood of price stagnation around $43 due to insufficient trading interest.

3. 20% chance of decline below $40 driven by market volatility.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish credit spread, selling NOG 12/20/2024 $42.00 P and buying $39.00 P. This offers upside potential with reduced risk, capitalizing on low implied volatility and the upcoming earnings announcement. Maintain a timeline of 28 days to maximize profit potential.

November 23, 2024

Northern Oil and Gas Forecast

NOG Northern Oil and Gas

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NOG

VDE Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (0.92)

EOG EOG Resources (0.9)

REAL Therealreal (0.77)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.77)

EMR Emerson Electric (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOG

TRP TC Energy (-0.0)

BYD Boyd Gaming (0.0)

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (0.01)

TWLO Twilio (0.01)

HOG Harley-Davidson (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOG

JNJ Johnson & Johnson (-0.59)

IGT International Game Technology (-0.62)

TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.64)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (-0.68)

ZTS Zoetis (-0.7)

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