NOG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite recent price declines, call option interest and historical return possibilities support potential for rebound.




Bearish Case: Flat price action, weak volume, and high implied volatility in NOG suggest persistent downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: 45% price recovery, 35% stagnation, 20% further decline due to uncertain outlook and geopolitical tensions.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish long volatility strategy: buy $33 put, sell $32 put, expiring in ~25 days. High return potential due to current volatility surface, with the favorable risk:reward post recent decline.



February 25, 2025


Northern Oil and Gas Forecast

NOG        Northern Oil and Gas











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NOG



AL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AL  Air Lease Corp (0.77)


ROOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROOT  Root (0.66)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (0.66)


HAE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAE  Haemonetics (0.65)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOG



FND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FND  Floor & Decor (-0.0)


TNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNDM  Tandem Diabetes Care (0.0)


NG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NG  Novagold Resources (0.0)


LHX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LHX  L3Harris (0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOG



THS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   THS  Treehouse Foods (-0.42)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (-0.44)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (-0.44)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (-0.47)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.55)









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