NOV Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The potential for NOV to rise is supported by recovering oil demand and industry activity, with market implied volatility suggesting possible upward price moves.




Bearish Case: NOV faces significant downside risks due to high historical volatility and investor skepticism, with puts trading heavily and prices near multi-year lows.




Potential Outcomes: NOV could rally by 10% (25%) if oil prices surge. Flat price action (50%) due to mixed sentiment. Decline by 10% (25%) if economic issues persist.




Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility strategy: Sell $15 calls, buy $16 calls for a 21-day expiration. High probability of profit at 89% and potential 22% return targets current price stagnation and increased put activity. Short-term outlook captures flat market dynamics.



February 02, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NOV



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WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.92)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.92)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.91)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOV



MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.0)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.01)


DHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHC  Diversified Healthcare (-0.02)


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (-0.02)


XLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLB  Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOV



TVTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TVTX  Travere Therapeutics (-0.8)


ADP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADP  Automatic Data Processing (-0.8)


CLPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLPT  ClearPoint Neuro (-0.81)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.81)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.83)









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