Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NTRS could benefit from a stabilizing macro environment and increasing asset management flows, boosting stock performance. Low implied volatility around 20% indicates potential for upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Sustained geopolitical tensions and persistent high volatility (above 40%) may suppress NTRS's price growth, risking a decline amid market pressures.

Potential Outcomes:

• 20% chance: Short-term price surge as investor confidence increases.
• 40% chance: Market remains range-bound with slight upward trends.
• 30% chance: Geopolitical tensions lead to significant declines in stock price.
• 10% chance: Major market event causes volatility spike affecting all financials.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy January $110 calls, sell January $115 calls. Implied volatility of 21% supports this strategy, with potential upside driven by NTRS's historical recovery traits. Target defined risk with a high probability-of-profit ratio.

December 18, 2024