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NWL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: NWL's historical mean-reverting behavior suggests upside potential. Implied volatility is currently lower than the market's, indicating an undervalued opportunity. Cost control measures may foster positive sentiment and price recovery in the medium term.



Bearish Case: Persistent low trading volumes reflect weak investor interest. Continued structural challenges and high implied volatility suggest significant risk, potentially leading to further price degradation under bearish market conditions.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion back to $10 (40%).

2. Further declines to around $8 (30%).

3. Stagnation at current levels (~30%). These outcomes are informed by NWL's historical price patterns and current market conditions.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long volatility strategy by buying $9 call and selling $10 call options, expiring in ~70 days. This trades on NWL's expected mean reversion, with favorable risk/reward dynamics due to high probability of profit (53%) under Helium forecasts. Enhance position by considering nearby put spreads for additional downside protection.


November 12, 2024


Newell Brands Forecast

NWL        Newell Brands

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MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NWL


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KLAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLAC  KLA (-0.57)


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