OFIX Forecast


Bullish Case: OFIX’s fundamentals are improving, as cited by Roth MKM's rating upgrade. Price is near lows, and market implied volatility is also low. Potential for a mean reversion rally provides a compelling risk/reward.


Bearish Case: Recent price movements show that OFIX is more likely to mean revert lower due to sustained poor price performance over multiple periods, as evidenced by historical returns. Additionally, helium-model correlates negatively with realized price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued price decline due to mean reversion (60%).

2. Moderate upside with improving fundamentals (30%).

3. Flat to slightly negative due to market scrutiny (10%). Probabilities based on historical performance, volatility surfaces, and recent fundamentals.


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June 30, 2024


Orthofix Medical Forecast

OFIX      Orthofix Medical











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