Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: OKTA is positioned for a potential rebound due to strategic partnerships and favorable earnings performance trends. Market confidence is buoyed by upcoming analyst upgrades.

Bearish Case: Ongoing security vulnerabilities and recent price stagnation pose significant risks to OKTA's reputation, suggesting potential for further price declines in a volatile market environment.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40%: Successful resolution of ongoing security issues leads to renewed investor confidence.
• 30%: Continued price pressure from competitors and market skepticism results in further declines.
• 20%: A significant partnership announcement can propel the stock upwards.
• 10%: Legal challenges emerge, exacerbating negative sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread with the December 20, 2024, $80 call and the $85 call. Given the high implied volatility of 110% in December and historical price patterns indicating potential recoveries, this strategy captures upside while managing risk. Target a price recovery towards mid-80s, optimizing for volatility decay post-earnings release.

November 29, 2024