Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Olaplex has potential for recovery as new product launches and strategic marketing efforts may rekindle consumer interest, likely stabilizing revenue and potentially attracting investors back to the stock.

Bearish Case: Continued revenue declines, heightened volatility, and looming legal challenges may further depress OLPX's price, eroding investor confidence and leading to additional market pressure in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic marketing leads to revenue recovery (30%);

2. Ongoing sales decline continues (50%);

3. Legal issues exacerbate stock volatility (15%);

4. Economic recovery boosts demand (5%). These reflect competitive pressures and historical trends, adjusted for recent strategic changes.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance with a debit spread using December 2024 $3.00 calls and $2.00 puts, capitalizing on high implied volatility (140%). This strategy targets downside protection while allowing upside exposure in case of recovery, aligning with current pricing dynamics.

November 08, 2024