ONTO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: ONTO’s implied volatility is notably higher than market implied volatility, signaling market optimism. The historical return surface shows substantial short-term upside potential.


Bearish Case: Ongoing insider selling, flat recent price action, and market volatility raise concerns over ONTO’s valuation sustainability, suggesting potential downward pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Revenue expansion from large orders boosts value (70%).

2. Insider selling impacts sentiment negatively (40%).

3. Volatility spike from global events affects stocks broadly (30%).


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July 20, 2024


Onto Innovation Forecast

ONTO      Onto Innovation











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ONTO



WDC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDC  Western Digital (0.98)


CLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLS  Celestica (0.97)


VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (0.97)


SMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMH  VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (0.96)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ONTO



NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.0)


IPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IPI  Intrepid Potash (0.0)


AAOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAOI  Applied Optoelectronics (0.0)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (0.01)


BXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXP  Boston Properties (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ONTO



GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRE  Green Plains (-0.92)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.94)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.94)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.96)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.96)





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