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ORI Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ORI has strong historical returns and mean-reverting price action, with recent bullish options activity indicating potential upside.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and previous downside pressure suggest persistent market uncertainty could lead to continued declines.

Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of reversion to mean at $37. 35% probability of retracing to $34 due to volatility. 25% chance of upward momentum, hitting $40.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: buy April $35 call, sell April $40 call. Capitalizes on mean reversion and volatility with favorable risk-reward. Target a $37-$40 price move by Q2, optimizing positive edge and controlling theta decay.

January 02, 2025

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