Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With growing demand for defense and AI products, OSS could experience substantial revenue growth, bolstered by strategic partnerships and increased government spending, indicating significant upside potential.

Bearish Case: Ongoing mean reversion tendencies and competitive pressures may continue to suppress share prices, potentially leading to a decline in future earnings if defense contracts do not materialize as anticipated.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of a bullish recovery due to defense contract wins.
• 40% chance of continued mean reversion resulting in stagnant prices.
• 20% chance of moderate growth from new product launches.
• 10% chance of severe price drops from competitive disruption.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread, targeting OSS 2.50 puts expiring within 2 months to capitalize on mean reversion and high implied volatility. Focus on risk management, aiming for a limited profit with high probability-of-profit while monitoring upcoming earnings reports for potential shifts.

December 17, 2024