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OXY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A rebound in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions coupled with institutional backing from major stakeholders like Berkshire Hathaway could lead to a significant rise in OXY shares, especially as carbon capture initiatives gain traction.



Bearish Case: Persistently low oil prices, driven by economic downturns or oversupply, may continue to impair OXY’s profitability, exacerbated by high debt levels and reduced investor confidence, particularly given the recent decline in market volatility.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Institutional buying will lift OXY (40%).

2. Oil price recovery to elevate stock (30%).

3. Sustained low prices pressure stock further (30%). Likelihoods based on historical trends and current market influences.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy by executing a debit spread using the $52.5 call and selling the $53 call, targeting a price surge from potential oil recovery. This setup leverages volatility fluctuations with a high profit potential, given OXY's current implied volatility outlook. Expecting upward movement due to geopolitical oil supply concerns and strong institutional support suggests this has a high reward-to-risk ratio.


November 03, 2024


Occidental Petroleum Forecast

OXY        Occidental Petroleum

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OXY


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.94)


CIVI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIVI  Civitas Resources Inc New (0.93)


BP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BP  BP (0.92)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.91)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OXY


AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (-0.0)


OTEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTEX  Open Text (-0.0)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.0)


MAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAR  Marriott International (-0.0)


WDAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDAY  Workday (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OXY


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.83)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.83)


TAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAC  Transalta (-0.84)


G Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   G  Genpact (-0.84)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.9)







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