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OXY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: OXY's strategic investments in carbon capture and solid institutional backing, notably from Berkshire Hathaway, suggest a potential price recovery, driven by increased investor sentiment as energy prices stabilize or rise.



Bearish Case: Persistently low oil prices and high leverage continue to strain Occidental's financials, along with bearish sentiment from market volatility which could lead to a further decline in stock price.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Carbon capture success boosts stock (45%).

2. Institutional buying increases (25%).

3. Continued declines in oil prices deflate stock (30%).

4. Geopolitical tensions lead to higher oil prices (20%).

5. Analyst downgrades negatively impact price (15%).



Trading Oracle: Given the stable implied volatility in OXY's term structure, consider a bull call spread: buy the $52.50 call and sell the $55 call expiring in 30 days. This approach offers a high probability of profit while managing risk effectively, leveraging upside potential as OXY's fundamentals strengthen.


November 29, 2024


Occidental Petroleum Forecast

OXY        Occidental Petroleum

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OXY


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.95)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.89)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (0.87)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.86)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OXY


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.0)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.01)


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.02)


MSFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSFT  Microsoft (-0.03)


BHF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHF  Brighthouse Financial (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OXY


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.87)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.89)


KIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIM  Kimco Realty (-0.89)


REG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REG  Regency Centers (-0.9)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.91)







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