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OXY Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Berkshire Hathaway and institutional backing, along with advances in carbon capture, support potential upside despite a neutral historical correlation   , 2].



Bearish Case: Persistent high leverage and negative long-term trends, coupled with market volatility, continue to pressure OXY's price HeliumHelium.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Institutional confidence lifts stock (35%).

2. Sustained high debt levels cause downturn (30%).

3. Market volatility influences negative sentiment, lowering stock (20%).

4. Oil price recovery supports modest growth (15%).



Trading Oracle: Optimal strategy involves bullish debit spreads targeting volatility stabilization. Buy $55 call, sell $57.5 call expiring in ~52 days. This leverages potential upward momentum and a positive edge due to underpriced implied volatility shown by Helium . High alpha potential, with a positive reward-to-risk ratio.


January 02, 2025


Occidental Petroleum Forecast

OXY        Occidental Petroleum

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OXY


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.91)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.9)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.88)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.87)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OXY


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.0)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.0)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.02)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (0.02)


PYCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PYCR  Paycor HCM (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OXY


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.81)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.84)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.84)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.91)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.91)







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