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PAGS Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: PAGS may rebound due to upcoming positive earnings revisions and institutional support, especially in light of reduced historical volatility. The potential stabilization in the Brazilian payments sector can enhance sentiment.



Bearish Case: Persistent market skepticism and high implied volatility raise concerns over PAGS's capacity to recover. Continued low trading volume signals investor disinterest, which may further depress prices.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Recovery driven by positive earnings: 35%
  • Flattening out at current levels due to institutional holding: 40%
  • Market downturn leading to further declines: 25%



Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread using the PAGS 01/17/2025 7.00 C and 8.00 C. This setup provides good upside potential with a favorable risk-reward ratio, given current low volatility expectations and institutional backing. Expect a rise in implied volatility as earnings approach.


December 18, 2024


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PAGS        PagSeguro Digital

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PAGS


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (0.0)


FMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FMC  FMC (-0.0)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.01)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PAGS


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SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (-0.77)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (-0.78)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (-0.79)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.8)







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