PEB Forecast


Bullish Case: Urban demand growth and positive institutional sentiment provide a strong case for upside, supported by recent modest earnings growth.


Bearish Case: Negative net margins and underperformance against peers, combined with high debt levels, suggest continued bearish price action.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Urban demand surge (65%),

2. Management underperformance (30%),

3. Market conditions drag (50%)


Trading Oracle: Given PEB's mean-reverting nature and the volatility structure, sell at-the-money credit spreads expiring within 30-60 days. This mitigates flat volatility risk and capitalizes on premium decay. Favor higher strike prices for better risk-reward.


June 27, 2024


Pebblebrook Hotel Forecast

PEB      Pebblebrook Hotel











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PEB



VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.88)


EYPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EYPT  EyePoint Pharmaceuticals (0.88)


ASO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASO  Academy Sports and Outdoors (0.88)


MAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAC  Macerich (0.85)


NUE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NUE  Nucor (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PEB



GIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIS  General Mills (-0.0)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.0)


ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (-0.0)


RRGB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRGB  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (-0.0)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PEB



TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.71)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.72)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.74)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.79)





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