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PENN Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: PENN’s mean-reverting pattern, 59% bullish risk, and recent 11.5% monthly gain suggest upside potential. Positive sentiment around sports betting further supports a bullish outlook, despite high historical volatility.



Bearish Case: With implied volatility in backwardation, high historical volatility, and a 40.9% drop from two years ago, PENN faces bearish pressure. Concerns over regulatory uncertainties and low option trading volume add to the risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Sideways movement (45%): Stable due to mean reversion.
  • Moderate upside (30%): Enhanced by bullish sentiment.
  • Significant drop (25%): Driven by market volatility.



Trading Oracle: Bullish debit spreads using $19 calls expiring in 10 days exploit volatility decay and mean reversion. This strategy balances risk with a 75% probability of profit. Use Helium AI’s term structure insights to optimize entry points.


January 23, 2025


Penn National Gaming Forecast

PENN        Penn National Gaming

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CYBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYBR  CyberArk Software (0.68)


COHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COHR  Coherent (0.67)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (0.62)


NOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOW  ServiceNow (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PENN


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.0)


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.01)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PENN


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (-0.59)


NEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEP  NextEra Energy (-0.61)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.62)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.62)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.64)







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