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PENN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: PENN's implied volatility is high (around 88.4%), indicating strong bullish sentiment and potential for upward price movement. Historical mean reversion suggests a bounce back toward recent highs.



Bearish Case: Despite recent bullish sentiment, PENN's history shows significant price drops due to volatility spikes. With uncertainties around market events, a downtrend could ensue, keeping prices under pressure.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises above $23 (35% probability) due to increased demand from sports betting.

2. Stabilizes around $20 (40% probability) as earnings projections remain flat.

3. Falls below $18 (25% probability) driven by negative market sentiment and economic factors.



Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish debit spread by purchasing $21.50 calls and selling $22.50 calls, focusing on the November expiry for a 75% probability of profit. This captures high implied volatility and leverages mean reversion for effective risk management. Consider also short volatility positions with high probability of profit across multiple expirations.


October 29, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PENN


EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (0.83)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (0.8)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.78)


NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (0.78)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PENN


LKQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LKQ  LKQ (0.0)


HD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HD  Home Depot (0.0)


ES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ES  Eversource Energy (-0.0)


IBB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.0)


HPQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPQ  HP (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PENN


CNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNM  Core & Main (-0.75)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.75)


SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (-0.76)


MAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAX  MediaAlpha (-0.78)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (-0.79)







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