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PENN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: PENN's current implied volatility remains elevated, indicating market anticipation of positive news or outcomes in the near term, coupled with strong historical price recovery metrics suggesting resilience and potential upside.



Bearish Case: Despite elevated implied volatility, ongoing operational challenges with ESPN Bet and recent poor performance could suppress PENN's stock price, posing risks of further declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance for a bullish upside breakout to $25 driven by positive earnings/revenue news.
  • 40% probability of sideways trading around $21 due to market stabilization.
  • 30% risk of a downward correction to $20 if market sentiment worsens.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a short volatility strategy by selling near $22.00 calls and buying further OTM calls at $23.50. This trade captures premium decay with market odds of 85% and potential returns of 10%. Favor this approach for high probabilities based on implied volatility dynamics. It effectively balances risk while leveraging PENN’s mean-reverting tendencies.


November 27, 2024


Penn National Gaming Forecast

PENN        Penn National Gaming

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PENN


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.83)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.79)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.77)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (0.77)


GLBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLBE  Global E Online (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PENN


TSEM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSEM  Tower Semiconductor (0.0)


NOK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOK  Nokia (0.0)


EVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVH  Evolent Health (-0.0)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.0)


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PENN


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.63)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.64)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.65)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.7)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.72)







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