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PEP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: PEP's focus on healthier products and its strategic expansion in India position it for continued growth, as evidenced by favorable historical returns over longer holding periods. Strong brand loyalty supports resilience.



Bearish Case: Recent FTC lawsuit and global economic pressures pose significant risks to PEP's margins and reputation. The company's price to book ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and regulatory challenges could depress future earnings.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 35% chance of stable growth with international expansion success.
  • 25% chance of legal issues impacting revenue negatively.
  • 20% chance of margin pressure from economic factors.
  • 20% chance of stock reversing recent trends due to volatility.



Trading Oracle: With stable but high implied volatility, execute a Bearish Short Volatility strategy by selling ATM call options and buying more OTM call options. This strategy capitalizes on high implied volatility, limiting downside while taking advantage of PEP's mean-reverting nature. Bearish Short Volatility.


March 11, 2025


Pepsico Forecast

PEP        Pepsico

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