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PIE Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Emerging market growth potential and positive sentiment could lead to significant momentum for PIE, offering favorable returns over short to medium holding periods.



Bearish Case: High volatility and geopolitical risks in emerging markets suggest potential downside for PIE, reflected in option pricing and historical downturns.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic Expansion (35%): Rise to $22.

2. Inflation Stabilizes (30%): Gradual recovery to $20.

3. Rising Geopolitical Tensions (20%): Drop to $17.

4. Market Correction (10%): Decline to $15.

5. Regulatory Changes (5%): Minor impact.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread, using the PIE 03/21/2025 17.00 P with 46.9% implied volatility. This strategy benefits from time decay and inherent market uncertainty. Target a $1.05 entry for optimal risk management over the next two months.


February 05, 2025


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PIE        Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco DWA Emerging Markets Momentum

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