PII Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Polaris's new product launches and strategic acquisitions could spur sales growth. With historical trends showing positive returns over specific periods, there’s potential for recovery if market conditions align favorably.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines indicate market uncertainty. Ongoing legal and market challenges may further depress stock value, amplified by backwardation in implied volatilities.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance: New product success boosts stock ($85).
  • 40% chance: Legal issues persist, stock declines to $70.
  • 30% chance: Stable conditions keep prices near $75.



May 14, 2025


Polaris Forecast

PII        Polaris











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PII



GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.01)


JBLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBLU  Jetblue Airways (-0.01)


KIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIM  Kimco Realty (-0.01)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.02)


LYFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYFT  Lyft (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PII



TPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPR  Tapestry (-0.82)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (-0.83)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.83)


USAU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USAU  U.S. Gold (-0.84)


HOOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOOD  Robinhood Markets (-0.85)









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