PM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: PM's expansion in smoke-free products and high dividend yield continue to attract ESG-focused investors, enhancing growth potential. Positive market sentiment supports further price increases.




Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and insider selling persist, posing significant risks to stock stability. High short-term implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, undermining confidence.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of price rise from smoke-free growth and dividends, 30% chance of decline due to regulatory issues, 20% chance of stability with neutral factors balancing out.




Trading Oracle: Consider bullish short-term debit spreads due to the backwardation and high short-term volatility. Target $130-$135 strikes expiring within a month. This strategy leverages current volatility and expected growth in smoke-free products, optimizing risk-reward.



February 06, 2025


Philip Morris International Forecast

PM        Philip Morris International
















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