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PM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: PM's expansion in smoke-free products and high dividend yield continue to attract ESG-focused investors, enhancing growth potential. Positive market sentiment supports further price increases.



Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and insider selling persist, posing significant risks to stock stability. High short-term implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, undermining confidence.



Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of price rise from smoke-free growth and dividends, 30% chance of decline due to regulatory issues, 20% chance of stability with neutral factors balancing out.



Trading Oracle: Consider bullish short-term debit spreads due to the backwardation and high short-term volatility. Target $130-$135 strikes expiring within a month. This strategy leverages current volatility and expected growth in smoke-free products, optimizing risk-reward.


February 06, 2025


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PM        Philip Morris International

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